6. Effects of climate change for the Sámi people

The rapidly changing Arctic climate poses several human rights challenges for the Sámi people, negatively impacting their culture, livelihoods and health. This chapter will explore the effects of climate change on Sámi reindeer husbandry, fishing, and health. Both reindeer husbandry and fishing are central parts of the Sámi people’s identity and their social, cultural and economic wellbeing.

The chapter is based on observations and projections published by the IPCC, the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, as well as the Saami Council’s recent report on “Climate Change in Sápmi” and academic research from Norway, Sweden and Finland. The chapter covers both observed effects and future risks, beginning with studies concerning the Arctic region as a whole, followed by studies concerning specific Sámi areas in Norway.

6.1 Observed effects

According to the IPCC and the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), climate change is already causing significant negative effects in the Arctic, including higher temperatures and precipitation, permafrost thaw, loss of sea and land ice, changes in snow cover, extreme weather events, and northward shifts of species on land and in freshwater and marine ecosystems.⁵⁵ These changes are occurring at a “magnitude and pace unprecedented in recent history, and much faster than projected for other world regions”, with natural and human systems in the Arctic “approaching a level of change potentially irreversible for hundreds of years, if not millennia”.⁵⁶ This is largely because the Arctic warms more than three times faster than the global average due to a phenomenon known as “Arctic amplification”, which is driven largely by feedback loops such as Arctic sea ice loss and thawing permafrost.⁵⁷

6.1.1 Sámi Reindeer husbandry

Both the practice of reindeer herding and the health and welfare of the reindeer are dependent on a stable climate, functioning ecosystems and the annual cycle of reindeer ecology, including access to a diversity of quality pastures at different times of the year.⁵⁸ Climate change has severe negative impacts on the reindeer herding practices of the Sámi people, through both slow-onset changes and sudden-onset events.⁵⁹ These impacts include:

Changes to the timing and length of seasons;
The spread of woody/shrubby vegetation across the tundra;
Reduced pasture quality;
Reduced access to ground lichen for reindeer due to high snow depth and rain-on-snow events;
Increased parasite and insect harassment during summer;
Unstable ice conditions on migration routes;
Hazardous weather conditions and wildfires.⁶⁰

One of the most significant challenges facing Sámi reindeer herders is more frequent and intense rain-on-snow events and freeze-thaw cycles during winter, which create an ice barrier, making it difficult for the reindeer to access food.⁶¹ This periodically prevents access to important grazing areas and migration routes, increasing the risk of starvation and death. Ice-locked pastures also disperse reindeer herds, increasing their exposure to predators, extreme weather and weaker ice cover on lakes and rivers.⁶² One estimate is that ice-locked pastures have already increased “from once every 50-100 years to frequencies on decadal times”.⁶³ During the last three years alone, large areas of ice-locked pastures have occurred twice, in 2020 and 2022.⁶⁴

6.1.2 Sámi Fishing

Some fish species are closely related to Sámi culture, such as cod, saith, haddock, Atlantic salmon and Arctic char.⁶⁵ Sámi fishing, at both the commercial and small-scale subsistence levels, is dependent on functioning marine and freshwater ecosystems and stable migration patterns for various species.⁶⁶ While there is some research on how climate change affects these species and ecosystems, more research is needed on the consequences for Sámi culture and livelihoods.

Climate change has impacts on marine and freshwater ecosystems in the Arctic and the fish species which depend on them. Sea surface temperature in the Norwegian Sea increased by approximately 1.2°C between 1980 and 2020.⁶⁷ Increasing water temperatures can have a positive effect on the distribution and abundance of some fish species and a negative effect on others.⁶⁸ This depends on several interrelated factors, including the temperature tolerances of the species, food-web interactions and migration patterns between spawning, feeding and wintering areas.

In general, climate change is driving a northward expansion of temperate and subarctic fish species, which in some cases are displacing Arctic species.⁶⁹ For example, warmer waters in Northern Norway have increased the geographic range of species such as walleye pollock, pink salmon and brown trout, while shifting the spawning sites of North-East Arctic cod northward and significantly reducing the abundance of the cold-water-adapted Arctic Char.⁷⁰ Marine heatwaves and other extreme events are also becoming more frequent and intense in the Arctic, contributing to large-scale displacement of fish communities as well as delayed effects on species life cycles.⁷¹ The nature and reversibility of marine ecosystem responses to such events is extremely complex and poorly understood.⁷²

Higher water temperatures in Norway also increase the production of sea-lice and reduce the effectiveness of parasite control measures, leading to a significant increase in the infection pressure that is introduced from farmed to wild salmon.⁷³ In addition, Atlantic salmon are threatened by invasive pink salmon, which is considered a “climate winner”, because it easily adapts to warmer waters.⁷⁴ These changes add to the cumulative effects of overfishing, pollution and habitat destruction, threatening Sámi fishing practices and traditional knowledge.⁷⁵

6.1.3 Sámi Health

According to the World Health Organisation, climate change is the greatest threat to human health in the 21^st century.⁷⁶ The adverse health impacts of climate change affect everyone. However, certain regions, populations and individuals bear a disproportionate burden.

While all those living in the Arctic are affected, groups that organise their lives and societies in close connection with nature could face earlier and more severe health impacts. This includes Indigenous Peoples since a large degree of their physical and mental health are dependent on climate-sensitive ecosystems, and they often already face health inequalities.⁷⁷

Negative Health Impacts of Climate Change for Arctic Indigenous Peoples

Direct effects:

Increased injury and death due to extreme weather.
Increased foodborne and waterborne diseases due to higher temperatures.
Microbial contamination and release of pathogens from thawing permafrost.

Indirect effects:

Mental health impacts due to disruptions to cultures and livelihoods.
Increased stress and workload due to unpredictable and unusual weather events.
Psychological effects of increased hate speech and harassment linked to growing competition for land and resources and the renewable energy transition.

Source: IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Cross-Chapter Paper 6, 2022, p. 2340; Johnsen et al., “Leaving no one behind”; Norwegian National Human Rights Institution (NIM): Holdninger til samer og nasjonale minoriteter i Norge. (2022); Amnesty International Norge: Negative holdninger og stereotypier om samer på Facebook. (2023).

Climate change has increased the risk of heavy snowfall, avalanches, blizzards, road destruction, weaker ice on lakes and rivers, spring flooding and landslides in the Arctic.⁷⁸ Extreme events such as these can pose serious risks for all people in the Arctic, but especially Sámi reindeer herders who often travel long distances in remote areas and dangerous conditions.⁷⁹ Reindeer herding is a physically demanding and dangerous profession, with some risks and hazards exacerbated by climate change, including for example injuries associated with distributing feed during grazing crises.⁸⁰

There is a lack of research on the links between climate change, extreme weather, disease, injury and death in Sápmi. A survey of Sámi reindeer herders in Norway found that 43% of the respondents experienced one or more accidents causing injury during the past five years, often involving a snowmobile in autumn when weather conditions were shifting, and ice conditions were unpredictable.⁸¹

In the Arctic region as a whole, warmer temperatures, reduced snow cover and higher precipitation have contributed to an increase in the transmission of illnesses such as Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis, as well as the release of toxins and contaminants stored in snow.⁸²

Globally, climate change is causing increased stress and anxiety in the general population and in other vulnerable groups such as older people, children and Indigenous Peoples.⁸³ According to the IPCC, for Arctic Indigenous Peoples, climate change is increasing the risk of:

Depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety and suicide ideation;
Financial and family stress and domestic violence;
Loss of cultural knowledge and continuity, disruptions to intergenerational knowledge transfer and loss of place-based identities and connections.⁸⁴

These effects may also be relevant in a Norwegian context. For example, research indicates that climate change leads to fear for the “future of Sámi culture and way of life and disappearance of cultural knowledge and traditions”, with Sámi reindeer herders reporting “increased stress, anxiety, worrying, and depression”.⁸⁵

6.2 Future risks

According to the IPCC, Arctic Indigenous Peoples and cultures, as well as the ecosystems on which they depend, are exposed to significant future risks due to climate change.⁸⁶ Under most emission scenarios, many of the changes that negatively impact Sámi reindeer husbandry, fishing and health are projected to worsen by the end of the century. This includes higher temperatures and precipitation, more frequent and severe rain-on-snow events, less snow and ice cover, more woody/shrubby vegetation replacing reindeer food sources, and increasing wildfires, parasites and diseases.⁸⁷

The Arctic climate in general will be “profoundly different” by 2050 under all warming scenarios, but the severity of the changes varies greatly depending on the course of States’ future Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions.⁸⁸

Without adequate mitigation of GHG emissions to limit global warming to 1.5°C, there is an increasing risk of crossing irreversible tipping points in the Arctic where climate change impacts surpass the ability of both natural and human systems to adapt.⁸⁹ This includes the risk of abrupt thaw of the Boreal permafrost, which together with the Arctic permafrost “contain 1460–1600 Gt organic carbon, almost twice the carbon in the atmosphere”.⁹⁰

Projected Changes to Temperature, Snow Cover and Precipitation in the Arctic by 2100

Under the lowest emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6), global temperatures will increase by 1.4°C, while Arctic temperatures will increase by 3.3°C on average and by 4.5°C in winter, compared to the 1985–2014 average. Snow cover in the Arctic will decrease by 18% in spring and 20% in autumn compared to the 1995–2014 average.
Under the highest emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), global temperatures will increase by 4.7°C, while Arctic temperatures will increase by 10.0°C on average and by 13.4°C in winter, compared to the 1985-2014 average. Snow cover will decrease by 55% in spring and 60% in autumn compared to the 1995-2014 average.
Arctic precipitation will increase by 30-60% depending on the emissions scenario, with a transition from snow to rain in spring and autumn, as well as increases in both rainfall and snowfall in winter. More frequent freeze-thaw cycles and rain-on-snow events, weaker ice sheets and increased risk of avalanches and other hazards are expected.

Source: AMAP 2021, Arctic Climate Change Update 2021: Key Trends and Impacts, 2021, pp. 35, 38 and 58, Figures 3.4 and 3.10; IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, 2022, pp. 1054-1058 (Box 7.1); Michelle R. McCrystall et al., “New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected” Nature Communications 12, 6765 (2021).

6.2.1 Sámi Reindeer husbandry

The cumulative effects of climate change, competing land use and limitations on adaptive capacity pose serious threats to the future viability of Sámi reindeer husbandry.⁹¹

If global warming exceeds the critical 1.5°C threshold, snow cover duration will decrease significantly in Sápmi. Snow cover is inextricably linked to the health of Arctic ecosystems, influencing ground temperature, length of the growing season, species composition, light conditions, meltwater, surface moisture and nutrient availability, among other things.⁹² Snow also plays a central role in Sámi language, culture, traditional knowledge and livelihoods.⁹³

Under all future warming scenarios, declining snow cover in the Arctic will increase extinction rates for plants, mosses and lichens, especially where snow cover decreases by more than 20%.⁹⁴ This will have varying consequences for reindeer husbandry, with studies indicating both positive and negative effects on forage access and quality.⁹⁵

Future projections concerning the frequency and intensity of “rain-on-snow events” in Norway vary depending on the season, altitude and distance from the coast. Under the highest emissions scenario (RCP8.5) in 2050, coastal areas at lower elevations will experience fewer but more intense rain-on-snow events,⁹⁶ whereas inland areas above 800 m.s.l. will experience a significant increase in both the frequency and intensity of rain-on-snow events, especially those in Finnmark, Troms and Nordland.

Future projections concerning the frequency of “freeze-thaw cycles” or “0°C crossings” show a similar pattern.⁹⁷ Under the highest emissions scenario (RCP8.5) in 2100, coastal areas at lower elevations will experience 40 fewer days with 0°C crossings per year. By contrast, there will be 20-40 more days with 0°C crossings per year in Finnmarksvidda. As already mentioned, this a serious development because it limits the reindeers’ access to food during winter.

Some of the future risks to Sámi reindeer husbandry resulting from climate change can be adapted to through supplementary feeding with pellets or bales and the use of trucks to transport reindeer. However, adaptive herding practices add a significant burden to Sámi reindeer herders through increased workload, costs, and concern for loss of traditional practices and culture.⁹⁸ Supplementary feeding is also associated with changing animal behaviour, higher rates of disease and health issues among the reindeer due to higher animal density, stress, lower immune systems, poorer hygiene and digestive systems that have not adapted to artificial products.⁹⁹ Sámi reindeer herders and researchers have noted that supplementary feeding is not a long-term solution to increasingly difficult grazing conditions and threatens intergenerational transfer of culture and traditional knowledge.¹⁰⁰

In some cases, adaptation to climate impacts can include the use of alternative grazing areas, but these are tightly regulated and are increasingly difficult to find due to competing land use related to infrastructure, extractive industries, farming, tourism and wind power developments.¹⁰¹ Adaptation measures for reindeer herding will require greater flexibility in land use and more available land. Current land use policy does not appear to enable such a development.

Projected Changes to Temperature, Snow Cover and Precipitation in Finnmarksvidda and Trøndelag by 2100 Compared to 1971-2000

Under the lowest emissions scenario (RCP2.6), annual average temperature will increase by 2.3°C in Finnmarksvidda and by 1.4°C in Trøndelag. Precipitation and snow cover data is limited for this scenario.
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (RCP4.5), annual average temperature in Finnmarksvidda will increase by 4.5°C, precipitation will increase by 13% and snow cover duration will decrease by 1-2 months. Annual average temperature in Trøndelag will increase by 2.6°C, precipitation will increase by 11% and snow cover duration will decrease by 2-3 months.
Under the highest emissions scenario (RCP8.5), annual average temperature in Finnmarksvidda will increase by 6.7°C, precipitation will increase by 22% and snow cover duration will decrease by 2-3 months. Annual average temperature in Trøndelag will increase by 4.5°C, precipitation will increase by 21% and snow cover duration will decrease by 3-4 months.

Figures and additional analysis provided by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, based on data from “Klima i Norge 2100” (2015).

Moreover, the IPCC notes that “adaptation limits are being approached” for reindeer herding in the Arctic due to the speed of climate change, the narrow resource base on which Indigenous Peoples rely and the risk of “maladaptation” involving loss of culture and livelihoods.¹⁰² This is supported by research which indicates that the adaptation options for Sámi reindeer herding are increasingly limited, primarily due to accumulated pressure of predation and competing land-uses in combination with herders’ lack of influence in governance and decision-making.¹⁰³ Whether and how soon these limits are reached depends largely on the course of future GHG emissions and access to alternative grazing areas, but will likely vary between different regions in the Arctic.

6.2.2 Sámi Fishing

According to the IPCC, the cumulative effects of warming, sea ice loss, ocean acidification, habitat loss and species competition will lead to substantial range contraction and even extinction of several saltwater and freshwater fish species in the Arctic by the end of the century if global warming exceeds 1.5°C.¹⁰⁴ The extent of these changes will vary across the Arctic region, and not all will be relevant to Sámi fishing in Norway.

In the Nordic seas and coastal areas, boreal/subarctic fish species are expected to continue their northward expansion, while Arctic fish species will continue retracting due to higher competition and predation, loss of spawning habitat and shelter, increased predatory pressure, reduced prey availability, and impaired growth and reproductive success.¹⁰⁵

Projected Changes to Sea Surface Temperature in the Coastal Areas of the Barents Sea and Norwegian Sea by 2100 Compared to 2015 in March

Under the lowest emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6), sea surface temperature will decrease by 0.4°C in the coastal parts of the Barents Sea and by 0.3°C in the coastal parts of the Norwegian Sea.
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), sea surface temperature will increase by 0.8°C in the coastal parts of the Barents Sea and by 0.3°C in the coastal parts of the Norwegian Sea.
Under the highest emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), sea surface temperature will increase by 2.2°C in the coastal parts of the Barents Sea and by 1.2°C in the coastal parts of the Norwegian Sea.

Source: Anne Britt Sandø, “Risikoanalyse for de norske havområdene om direkte og indirekte virkninger av klimaendringer på marine økosystemer under ulike utslippsscenarier” [Risk analysis for the Norwegian sea areas on direct and indirect effects of climate change on marine ecosystems under various emission scenarios] (Institute of Marine Research, 2022) table 1. BS K is the costal parts of the Barents Sea, and NH K is the costal parts of the Norwegian Sea.

While there may be some short-term benefits for fisheries from the northward expansion of species, the long-term viability of commercial and subsistence fishing faces significant threats.¹⁰⁶ According to the IPCC, while high latitude fisheries have historically been resilient to climate variability, “the future of commercial fisheries in Arctic regions is uncertain”.¹⁰⁷

Cold-adapted Arctic fish species such as Polar cod, Atlantic salmon, Arctic Grayling, whitefish and Arctic char are particularly threatened.¹⁰⁸ One study predicts that Arctic char will lose 73% of its range in Sweden by 2100.¹⁰⁹ The IPCC notes that “cold-adapted Arctic fish species such as Polar cod are expected to decline further and lose spawning habitats at global warming levels over 1.5°C”, which may cause structural reorganisation of the Arctic food web in the future.¹¹⁰

While a recent study suggests that increasing ocean temperatures alone are unlikely to make the Norwegian coastal zone an unsuitable habitat for Atlantic salmon, there are uncertainties concerning the effects of warming freshwater, competition from new species such as pink salmon and increased sea lice.¹¹¹ The Norwegian government has noted that larger quantities of pink salmon might have negative effects for Atlantic salmon in certain areas.¹¹²

Overall, “Arctic marine ecosystems are facing cascading impacts and feedbacks from global warming”.¹¹³ These impacts will have varying consequences for different populations and industries, but will particularly impact Arctic Indigenous Peoples, whose cultures and traditional livelihoods are closely connected to fishing.¹¹⁴

6.2.3 Sámi Health

Climate change is also projected to increase both physical and mental health risks in the Arctic in the future,¹¹⁵ particularly in relation to increased food insecurity, waterborne diseases, emerging pathogens, injury and death, and negative mental health outcomes.¹¹⁶

Globally, climate change is expected to increase rates of adverse mental health impacts.¹¹⁷ This is concerning given that Sámi people are already at greater risk of experiencing psychological distress. As is the case for Sámi reindeer herding and fishing, the severity of future negative effects depends on the course of future GHG emissions. The IPCC notes that there are limited adaptation measures that effectively reduce climate-related health risks in the Arctic.¹¹⁸

As climate change affects the timing of seasons and the geographic expansion of different species, there are increased opportunities for diseases to spread from wildlife to humans in the Arctic, including for example anthrax and tularaemia (rabbit fever).¹¹⁹ The increased risk of disease transmission applies to both traditional food sources and drinking water in the Arctic.¹²⁰

The IPCC, along with the European Space Agency and NASA have expressed concern that “rapidly thawing permafrost in the Arctic has the potential to release antibiotic-resistant bacteria [and] undiscovered viruses”.¹²¹ In 2016 for example, extreme temperatures and thawing permafrost in Siberia led to the release of anthrax spores from frozen animal remains, hospitalising 72 nomadic herders, killing one child and over 2,300 reindeer.¹²² Threats to human health from microbial pathogens in thawing permafrost are generally considered low, but are projected to increase with climate change.¹²³ There is approximately 13000 km² of permafrost in the peatlands of Finnmarksvidda and the mountainous areas of Southern Norway, which is projected to thaw at an accelerated rate if global warming exceeds 1.5°C.¹²⁴ The associated threats to human health in Norway are unclear.

Fotnoter:

¹IPCC, AR6 WGI The Physical Science Basis: Summary for Policymakers, 2021, p. 15, para. B.2.1; IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, 2022, ch. 2, p. 200; IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Cross Chapter Paper 6, 2022, p. 2321; Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Arctic Climate Change Update 2021: Key Trends and Impacts 2021, ch. 2.
²IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Cross Chapter Paper 6, 2022, p. 2321.
³Earlier estimates indicated that Arctic temperatures have increased at twice the global rate, see IPCC, 2021 AR6 WG1, SPM p. 15, Atlas 11.2.2. Other studies indicate that Arctic temperatures have increased at three to four times the global rate, see Mika Rantanen et al., “The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979” Communications Earth and Environment 3, no. 168 (2022).
⁴Saami Council, Climate Change in Sápmi – an overview and a Path Forward, 2023, p. 84; Tim Horstkotte et al., “Pastures under pressure. Effects of other land users and the environment”; Svein D. Mathiesen et al., “Strategies to enhance the resilience of Sámi reindeer husbandry to rapid changes in the Arctic” In Arctic Resilience Interim Report (Stockholm Environment Institute, 2013).
⁵Inger Hansen, et al., Kartlegging av forskning på reindriftsområdet - kunnskapsgrunnlag og forskningsbehov (NIBIO, 2021, pp. 38-39);Tyler et.al., ““The Shrinking Resource Base of Pastoralism: Saami Reindeer Husbandry in a Climate Change”; Saami Council, 2023, p. 84.
⁶IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, 2022, pp. 761 and 1868; Conor D. Mallory and Mark S. Boyce, “Observed and predicted effects of climate change on Arctic caribou and reindeer” Environmental Reviews 26, no. 1 (2018); Brage Bremset Hansen et al., “Climate events synchronize the dynamics of a resident vertebrate community in the high Arctic” Science 339, no. 6117 (2013); Bruce C. Forbes et al., “Sea ice, rain-on-snow and tundra reindeer nomadism in Arctic Russia” Biology Letters 12, no. 11 (2016); Hansen, et al., 2021, p. 37; Jaakkola et al., 2018, p. 401; Jan Åge Riseth and Hans Tømmervik, Klimautfordringer og arealforvalting for reindrifta i Norge. Kunnskapsstatus og forslag til tiltak – eksempler fra Troms (NORUT, 2017) p. 3; Susan E. Lee et al., “Regional effects of climate change on reindeer: a case study of the Muotkatunturi region in Finnish Lapland” Polar Research 19, no. 1 (2000) p. 99; Jaakkola et al., 2018, p. 406.
⁷IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, 2022, p. 761; Putkonen, J., & Roe, G. (2003). Rain-on-snow events impact soil temperatures and affect ungulate survival. Geophysical Research Letters 30(4), art-1188.
⁸IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, 2022, p. 1057; Anne Walkepää, Syntesrapport - En sammanställning av fyra samebyars pilotprojekt med klimat- och sårbarhetsanalys samt handlingsplan för klimatanpassning (Synthesis report – A compilation of four Sámi villages’ pilot projects with climate and vulnerability analysis and an action plan for climate adaptation) (SWECO, report no. 12602183, 2019); Alessia Uboni et al., “Can management buffer pasture loss and fragmentation for Sámi reindeer herding in Sweden?” Pastoralism Research, Policy and Practice 10, no. 23 (2020).
⁹Marina Tonkopeeva et al., “Framing Adaptation to Rapid Change in the Arctic” In Reindeer Husbandry: Adaptation and Resilience to a Changing Arctic, Svein D. Mathiesen et al. (eds.) (Springer Polar Sciences, 2022).
¹⁰Johnsen et al., “Leaving no one behind”, p. 3; Johnsen, et al., "Reindriften må tilpasse seg klimaendringer, men det er vanskelig med dagens forvaltning", 16.01.23, forskersonen.no; Landbruksdirektoratet, "En styrket beredskap i reindriften", Rapport nr. 43/2022, 15.10.2022. See also Saami Council, 2023, p. 102.
¹¹Saami Council, 2023, pp. 74, 78, 79.
¹²Ibid, p. 72.
¹³Kessler et al., "Observation-based Sea surface temperature trends in Atlantic large marine ecosystems" Progress in Oceanography 208 (2022). See also, IPCC, AR6 WGI The Physical Science Basis, 2021, chapter 9.2.1.1.
¹⁴Sturla F. Kvamsdal et al., “Multidisciplinary perspectives on living marine resources in the Arctic”, Polar Research 41 (2022).
¹⁵IPCC AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, 2022, ch. 2, p. 200; AMAP, Arctic Climate Change Update 2021: Key Trends and Impacts, 2021, p. 115, p. 118; IPCC, Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, 2019, ch. 3; Saami Council, p. 78; Aslak Smalås et al., “Increased importance of cool-water fish at high latitudes emerges from individual-level responses to warming” Ecology and Evolution 13, no. 6 (2023).
¹⁶Ibid; Martin Svenning et al.,"Temporal changes in the relative abundance of anadromous Arctic charr, brown trout, and Atlantic salmon in northern Europe: Do they reflect changing climates?" Freshwater Biology 67, no. 1 (2022); Kathleen M. Stafford et al., "Northward Range Expansion of Subarctic Upper Trophic Level Animals into the Pacific Arctic Region" Oceanography 35, no. 2 (2022); Sundby, S., and O. Nakken. 2008. Spatial shifts in spawning habitats of Arcto-Norwegian cod related to multidecadal climate oscillations and climate change. Ices Journal of Marine Science 65:953-962; Sandø, A. B., G. O. Johansen, A. Aglen, J. E. Stiansen, and A. H. H. Renner. 2020. Climate Change and New Potential Spawning Sites for Northeast Arctic cod. Frontiers in Marine Science 7.
¹⁷Bérengère Husson et al., “Successive extreme climatic events lead to immediate, large-scale, and diverse responses from fish in the Arctic” Global Change Biology 28, no. 11 (2022).
¹⁸Ibid.
¹⁹Sean C. Godwin et al., “Sea-louse abundance on salmon farms in relation to parasite-control policy and climate change” ICES Journal of Marine Science 78, no. 1 (2021); Anne D. Sandvik et al., “The effect of a warmer climate on the salmon lice infection pressure from Norwegian aquaculture” ICES Journal of Marine Science 78, no. 5 (2021).
²⁰Kjetil Hindar et al., “Assessment of the risk to Norwegian biodiversity and aquaculture from pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha)” (Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment - VKM, report no. 1, 2020) p. 39; Robert J. Lennox et al., “Prospects for the future of pink salmon in three oceans: From the native Pacific to the novel Arctic and Atlantic” Fish and Fisheries 24, no. 5, p. 769.
²¹Saami Council, 2023, p. 73.
²²World Health Organisation, “COP26 special report on climate change and health: the health argument for climate action”, 2021.
²³IPCC. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Summary for Policymakers pp. SPM-12 and 4-54 (With additional references such as: Zentner, Kecinski, Letourneau, & Davidson, 2019, p. 534; IPCC, 2022, pp. 13-61; Markkula, Turunen, & Rasmus, 2019; Hansen, et al., 2021, p. 38). Compared to other Indigenous Peoples in the Arctic, there are fewer health inequalities between the Sámi population and the majority population in Norway. However, studies indicate that Sámi people respondents may have a higher risk of experiencing obesity, and chronic lifestyle diseases like diabetes, as well as discrimination angina pectoris, stroke and psychological distress. Whether intergenerational historical trauma is the cause, is still uncertain, but climate change can be said to represent a new external pressure on top of the already experienced assimilation policies and disparities in healthcare. See Christina Storm Mienna et al., “Somatic health in the indigenous Sámi population - a systematic review” International Journal of Circumpolar Health 78, no. 1 (2019); Kirsti Kvaløy et al., “Weight underestimation linked to anxiety and depression in a cross- sectional study of overweight individuals in a Sámi and non- Sámi Norwegian population: the SÁMINOR Study” BMJ Open 9 (2019); Naseribafrouei, A. et al. (2019) “Estimated 8-year cumulative incidence of diabetes mellitus among Sami and non-Sami inhabitants of Northern Norway - The SAMINOR Study”. BMC Endocr Discord Vol 24, Issue 19. ; Hansen, K.L. et al. (2016). “Discrimination amongst Arctic Indigenous Sami and Non-Sami Populations in Norway: The SAMINOR 2 Questionnaire Study”. Journal of Northern studies Vol. 10, No 2, 45-84
²⁴AMAP, Arctic Climate Change Update 2021: Key Trends and Impacts, 2021, ch. 7; Inger Hanssen-Bauer et al., Climate in Norway 2100 (Norwegian Centre for Climate Services, 2017).
²⁵Sven Hassler et al., “Fatal Accidents and Suicide among Reindeer Herding Sámi in Sweden” International Journal of Circumpolar Health 63 (2004).
²⁶One study suggest that it is already one of the most dangerous professions, see Grete Helen Meisfjord Jørgensen et al., "Helse, miljø og sikkerhet i reindriften – en case studie. Sluttrapport” [Health, environment and safety in reindeer husbandry - a case study. Final report] (NIBIO, 2019), pp. 23 and 42.
²⁷Anna Kristine Sokki Bongo et al., “Helse, miljø og sikkerhet i reindrift. Funn fra kartlegging blant reindriftsutøvere.” (Ruralis Institutt for rural- og regionalforskning, rapport no. 11, 2022).
²⁸Saami Council, p. 104; AMAP, Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area, 2017; Terry V. Callaghan et al., “Multiple Effects of Changes in Arctic Snow Cover” AMBIO 40 (2011).
²⁹Marina Romanello et al., "The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels" The Lancet 400, no. 10363 (2022) panel 4; Caroline Hickman et al., “Climate anxiety in children and young people and their beliefs about government responses to climate change: a global survey” Lancet Planet. Health 5, no. 12 (2021); Jacqueline Middleton et al., "Indigenous mental health in a changing climate: a systematic scoping review of the global literature" Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 053001 (2020); Ashlee Willox et al., "Examining relationships between climate change and mental health in the Circumpolar North" Regional Environmental Change 15 (2015).
³⁰IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Cross-Chapter Paper 6, 2022, p. 2340 (With additional references such as: Cunsolo Willox et al., 2013a; Cunsolo Willox et al., 2013b; Cunsolo Willox et al., 2014; Durkalec et al., 2015; Harper et al., 2015; Cunsolo and Ellis, 2018; Hayes et al., 2018; Jaakkola et al., 2018; Markon et al., 2018; Minor et al., 2019; Middleton et al., 2020a; Feodoroff, 2021).
³¹Jaakkola et al., 2018, p. 410.
³²IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Cross-Chapter Paper 6, pp. 2344-2349.
³³Ibid, see Tables 5.10, CCP6.5, CCP6.5 and Figure CCP6.4 (With additional references such as: Riseth and Tømmervik, 2017, p. 3; Hansen, et al., 2021, pp. 43-44; Hansen, et al., 2021, p. 38).
³⁴IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Cross-Chapter Paper 6, 2022, p. 2321; AMAP 2021, Arctic Climate Change Update 2021: Key Trends and Impacts, 2021, p. 46.
³⁵Ibid, FAQ CCP6.4.
³⁶Mckay et al., 2022; IPCC, Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate: Summary for Policymakers, 2019, paras. A.1.3, B.1.4.
³⁷IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, 2022, p. 1868 (Box 13.2). The box relates to reindeer herding in Sweden, but the threats discussed are also relevant in a Norwegian context.
³⁸Saami Council, 2023, p. 40-41; Christian Rixen et al., "Winters are changing: snow effects on Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems" Arctic Science 8, no. 3 (2022); Pekka Niittynen and Miska Luoto, “The importance of snow in species distribution models of arctic vegetation” Ecography 41 (2018).
³⁹Jaakkola et al., 2018, p. 403; Inger Marie Gaup Eira et al., “Traditional Sámi snow terminology and physical snow classification—two ways of knowing” Cold Regions Science and Technology 85 (2013).
⁴⁰IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, 2022, Cross-Chapter 6, p. 2331; Pekka Niittynen et al., “Snow cover is a neglected driver of Arctic biodiversity loss” Nature Climate Change 8 (2018).
⁴¹Christian Rixen et al., "Winters are changing: snow effects on Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems" Arctic Science 8, no. 3 (2022); Minna Turunen et al., “Does climate change influence the availability and quality of reindeer forage plants?” Polar Biology 32, no. 6 (2009); SWECO, Syntesrapport: En sammanställning av fyra samebyars pilotprojekt med klimat- och sårbarhetsanalys samt handlingsplan för klimatanpassning (2019), p. 24; Jon Moen, “Climate change: effects on the ecological basis for reindeer husbandry in Sweden” Ambio 37, no. 4 (2008).
⁴²Priscilla Mooney and L.Li, “Near future changes to rain-on-snow events in Norway” Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 6 (2021).
⁴³Irene Brox Nilsen et al., “Projected changes in days with zero-crossings for Norway” International Journal of Climatology 41, no. 4 (2021).
⁴⁴IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, 2022, p. 1868 (With additional references such as: Furberg et al., 2011; Löf, 2013; Rosqvist et al., 2021; Lawrence and Kløcker Larsen, 2019; Tryland et al., 2019; Johnsen et al., “Leaving no one behind”.
⁴⁵Svein Morten Eilertsen, "Fôring av reinsdyr – og fôringsrelaterte sykdommer [Feeding of reindeer and related diseases]" NIBIO POP 8, no. 4 (2022); Morten Tryland et al., "Infectious Disease Outbreak Associated With Supplementary Feeding of Semi-domesticated Reindeer” Frontiers in Veterinary Science 6 (2019); Johnsen et al., “Leaving no one behind”.
⁴⁶Tim Horstkotte et al., Supplementary feeding in reindeer husbandry: Results from a workshop with reindeer herders and researchers from Norway, Sweden and Finland (Umeå University, 2020); Johnsen et al., “Leaving no one behind”.
⁴⁷Riseth and Tømmervik, 2017, p. 3; Johnsen et al. “Leaving no one behind”.
⁴⁸IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Cross-Chapter Paper 6, 2022, p. 2348 and 2351, CCP6.3.2.3 and Table CCP6.6; IPCC. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Summary for Policymakers para. C.4 and C.4.3.para. C.4 and C.4.
⁴⁹Jaakkola et al., 2018, p. 401 and 410; Saami Council, 2023, p. 96-98; Annette Löf, “Examining limits and barriers to climate change adaptation in an Indigenous reindeer herding community” Climate and Development 5, no. 4 (2013); Wilbert van Rooij et al., “Loss of Reindeer Grazing Land in Finnmark, Norway, and Effects on Biodiversity: GLOBIO3 as Decision Support Tool at Arctic Local Level” In Reindeer Husbandry: Adaptation and Resilience to a Changing Arctic, Svein D. Mathiesen et al. (eds.) (Springer Polar Sciences, 2022).
⁵⁰IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Cross-Chapter Paper 6, 2022, p. 2321; IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, 2022, p. 202; Saami Council, p. 55.
⁵¹Geir Ottersen et al., “Observed and expected future impacts of climate change on marine environment and ecosystems in the Nordic region” (Institute of Marine Research, 2023), ch. 10.
⁵²Saami Council, p. 57; IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Cross-Chapter Paper 6, 2022, ch. 2 and Table CCP6.2 (Arctic fish) at p. 2327; AMAP, Arctic Climate Change Update 2021: Key Trends and Impacts, 2021, p. 115, 117.
⁵³IPCC, Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, 2019, ch. 3.2.4.1.1 Fisheries – Arctic.
⁵⁴Ibid; Saami Council, pp. 42 and 54.
⁵⁵Catherine Hein et al., “Future Distribution of Arctic Char Salvelinus alpinus in Sweden under Climate Change: Effects of Temperature, Lake Size and Species Interactions” Ambio 41, no. 3 (2012).
⁵⁶IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Cross-Chapter Paper 6, 2022, p. 2328 and 2330.
⁵⁷Trond Kristiansen et al., Klimapåvirkning på viktige kystvannsarter [Climate impact on important coastal water species] (Norwegian Institute for Water Research - NIVA, 2022) p. 64.
⁵⁸Meld. St. 26. (2022-2023), p. 21 box 3.6.
⁵⁹AMAP, Arctic Climate Change Update 2021: Key Trends and Impacts, 2021, p. 117.
⁶⁰Ibid.
⁶¹IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Cross-Chapter Paper 6, 2022, p. 2340.
⁶²Ibid, Table CCP6.6.
⁶³IPCC, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, 2022, p. 1098.
⁶⁴Ibid, AR6 WGII Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Cross-Chapter Paper 6, 2022, p. 2340 and 2350.
⁶⁵Saami Council, p. 54; IPCC. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Summary for Policymakers TS.B.5.8; Yan Ma et al., “Potential for Hydroclimatically Driven Shifts in Infectious Disease Outbreaks: The Case of Tularemia in High-Latitude Regions” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, no. 19 (2019).
⁶⁶Saami Council Report, p. 51; AMAP, Arctic Climate Change Update 2021: Key Trends and Impacts, 2021, Chapter 7;
⁶⁷The European Space Agency, Permafrost thaw could release bacteria and viruses, 22 October 2021, https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Permafrost_thaw_could_release_bacteria_and_viruses; Kimberley R. Miner et al., "Emergent biogeochemical risks from Arctic permafrost degradation" Nature Climate Change 11 (2021).
⁶⁸Alec Luhn, “Anthrax outbreak triggered by climate change kills boy in Arctic Circle”, The Guardian, 1 August 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/01/anthrax-outbreak-climate-change-arctic-circle-russia.
⁶⁹Ruonan Wu et al., "Permafrost as a potential pathogen reservoir" One Earth 5, no. 4 (2022).
⁷⁰Kjersti Gisnås et al., "Permafrost Map for Norway, Sweden and Finland", Permafrost Periglacial Processes 28, no. 2 (2017); Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Cryo: Permafrost real-time monitoring, available at: https://cryo.met.no/en/permafrost; Inger Hanssen-Bauer, “Climate in Norway 2100 – a knowledge base for climate adaptation” (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 2017), chapter 5; Kjersti Gisnås et al., “CryoGRID 1.0: Permafrost Distribution in Norway estimated by a Spatial Numerical Model” Permafrost Periglacial Processes 24, no. 1 (2013); JeSámine Bartlett et al., "Carbon storage in Norwegian ecosystems" (Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Report 1774b, 2020), p. 23; Jan-Olof Selroos et al., "Permafrost Thaw with Thermokarst Wetland-Lake and Societal-Health Risks: Dependence on Local Soil Conditions under Large-Scale Warming" Water 11, no. 3 (2019); Gunn Kristin Tjoflot, "Permafrost in the Arctic can thaw faster than presumed", Science Norway, 7 June 2020 https://partner.sciencenorway.no/climate-environment-geology/permafrost-in-the-arctic-can-thaw-faster-than-presumed/1692079.